Conflicting Reports From the Bureau of Labor Statistics Shows 3 Million Job Growth Gap. What Gives?

Here is what we will be getting into today:

1. BLS Data Revision Leads to Conflicting Job Growth Reports

2. Labor Market Revisions Show Surprising Strength

3. The Fed's Deception: Hiding the Truth About the Economy

4. China's Demand for Oil & It’s Impact On The Global Product Market

Let’s Dive In!

YouTube Channel: Eurodollar University

Title: You won't believe what they just reported.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqUUihfBLB8

Here are the key highlights:

• The BLS has been increasingly adjusting its data to account for population control factors, which has led to discrepancies between its establishment and household surveys. The latest adjustment has led to a discrepancy of close to 3 million jobs between the two surveys.

• The household survey shows that the economy is sputtering, with only 1 million jobs gained in the last 10 months. Meanwhile, the establishment survey shows that the economy has been slowly growing, with 3.65 million jobs gained in the same time period.

• There are a few possible explanations for this discrepancy. It is possible that the BLS is overestimating the number of people in the labor force, and thus overestimating job growth. It is also possible that the BLS is underestimating the number of people who are unemployed, and thus underestimating job growth.

• Either way, it is clear that there is a discrepancy between the two surveys that needs to be addressed.

Newsletter: Apricitas Economics

Title: The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought.
Link: https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-us-labor-market-was-stronger

Here are the key highlights:

• The recent release of updated labor market data has made a soft landing outcome, where inflation dissipates without a recession, more likely.

• The job market remains extremely strong, with significant upward revisions to both employment and payroll figures. The revisions of the data have erased perceived job losses in key sectors that serve as important indicators for economic activity.

• The Federal Reserve's role in fighting inflation is not yet over, but the resilience in job growth indicates that the US economy has a greater ability to handle higher interest rates than previously believed.

• This newfound strength in job growth supports the argument that the US economy is capable of withstanding higher interest rates, which was a concern in the past.

• The recent benchmark revisions to labor market data suggest that the underlying month-to-month strength in the job market is probably not as pronounced as the headline numbers suggest. The revisions to growth over the last year represent a significant sign of strength in the job market, indicating that it is performing better than previously thought.

• These benchmark revisions have also reshaped our understanding of some of the key leading indicators for the labor market. These leading indicators tend to drive employment dynamics in other sectors of the economy and are more sensitive to overall economic conditions. As a result, the strength seen in the revisions of these leading indicators provides a positive outlook for the future of the job market and the economy as a whole.

• The recent movements in wage growth have sparked discussions about the possibility of further wage disinflation. However, this trend should not necessarily be considered a negative outcome.

• The focus of discussions should shift from the pace of interest rate hikes to the level of terminal rates. The recent trends in labor market data, including wage growth, support the Federal Reserve's disinflationary goals.

YouTube Channel: George Gammon

Title: They're Lying To You Again (Here's Proof)
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkMS_9WGkdo

Here are the key highlights:

• The Federal Reserve is lying to the public about the state of the economy and the likelihood of a recession. They are using artificially low interest rates to prop up the economy, which is not sustainable in the long run.

• A recession is inevitable, and it is likely to be worse than the last one. The Fed's actions are motivated by their desire to maintain their power and influence, even at the expense of the American people. The Federal Reserve is purposely deceiving the public by painting a rosy picture of the economy, even though their own data shows that there is a high probability of a recession.

• They are doing this because they believe that the average person cannot handle the truth and that if they were to admit that a recession is likely, it would only make the situation worse.

• The Fed is made up of central planners who think they are smarter than the average person and that they know what is best for the economy. However, their policies are only making the situation worse and leading us towards an economic collapse.

Newsletter: HFI Research

Title: Thinking Out Loud - What Am I Seeing This Year?
Link: https://hfir.substack.com/p/thinking-out-loud-what-am-i-seeing-efb

Here are the key highlights:

• The global economy is facing a number of headwinds, including fears of a recession, higher interest rates, and falling inflation estimates. There is a very real possibility that these factors could actually lead to a sharp increase in oil prices later this year.

• The key variable in this equation is China's demand for oil. If Beijing's reopening efforts are successful and lead to increased demand for crude, then the global product market will tighten, sending prices higher. This will have a ripple effect on other markets, as inflationary pressures increase and the Fed is forced to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy.

• While this scenario could ultimately lead to a severe price spike and demand destruction, it is important to remember that OPEC+ will have the ability to change its production policy in response. As such, there is a possibility that the organization could prevent a major price spike from occurring.

• Energy stocks are expected to outperform in this environment, but there is a risk of a global recession if China does not use its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to keep prices in check.

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