FOMC, Rally before the Crash, & Greed. (01-06 to 01-09) [Paid]

In this week we will be looking at 7 separate sources for our macro recap.
We strive to incorporate as many independent views into this newsletter. We want to identify & synthesis this data for our audience, allowing you to get an understanding from a high level what is happening, then be able to quickly dig into the details of the newsletters linked below.
Let's Dive In!

Newsletter: The Trader's Brief

Title: Highlights From the December FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Link: https://capitalistpigcollective.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-december-fomc

Here are the top takeaways:

• The Federal Reserve staff has pushed back their inflation territory exit estimate by a year, to the end of 2024

• With the staff estimating a zero output gap to be a full two years away, they appear to be sending warning signals to the committee.

• The minutes from the FOMC meeting reveal a much more divided committee than might be assumed from the unanimous vote and from Powell’s press conference.

• The discussion on the labor market was contentious, with some members seeing the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation as a false bargain that will only lead to higher inflation.

• The committee continues to position itself to declare victory over inflation in 2023 while also justifying the need to keep the policy rate higher-for-longer.

YouTube Channel: Wall St For Main St

Title: This Week In Charts Episode 90: A Large Short Term Short Squeeze Rally Before Another Large Crash?
Link:

Here are the top takeaways:

• The market ended the first week of the year on a positive note, with a rally driven by strong non-farm payroll numbers.

• In the short term, inflation is expected to be cooler than anticipated, which is good news for stocks. However, yields on long-term government bonds are rising, signaling that a recession may be on the horizon.

• Transports had a nice surge today, which should give the market a lift in the short term. However, in the long term, the market is in trouble.

• Interest rates are testing a trend line, and there is talk of asset managers buying up bonds in anticipation of a recession.

• Homebuilders are holding up well, but general real estate is not looking so good. Financials are in trouble, and Robin Hood is under investigation by the DoJ.

• Energy is under pressure in the near term, but uranium stocks are beginning to look promising.