Trader mood cooled this week in both markets, and prices followed. Stock sentiment slipped while the S&P 500 fell 2.7%. Crypto sentiment dropped from bullish to neutral as Bitcoin lost 1.9%.
Stocks
The week's reading. Stock sentiment averaged 8.3 for the week of Nov 2, 2026, down 5.4 points from 13.7 the week before; both weeks are neutral. The S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86 on Nov 6, down 2.7% for the week, after a 0.6% dip the week before.
Sentiment hit its low of -10.6 on Nov 5, the same day the index posted its lowest close of the week at 7,353.73. The high was 25.4 on Nov 4, and the latest weekday reading was 4.6 on Nov 6.
The weekend. With the market closed, the S&P 500 stays at 7,376.86 until trading resumes. On Nov 7, with 66 traders posting on stocks, the last reading was 7.1, up 2.5 points from Friday's 5 PM ET close of 4.6. On Nov 8, with 71 traders posting, it eased to 2.7, down 1.9 points from Friday. Both are neutral.
News vs. traders. Headlines got gloomier: the share carrying fear rose to 11.9% from 10.1% the prior week, while greed rose to 1.4% from 1.0%. Trader posts moved the same way, with fear at 5.6% versus 4.2% and greed at 4.5% versus 3.6%. Trader figures combine stocks and crypto.
Loudest bull and bear. On Nov 4, @SuperLuckeee argued that a blue Congress is good news for $SPY. @SuperLuckeee pointed to the fund's one-day reversal from $748 to $768 and named $800+ as the next target. Their reasons included a possible off-ramp from the Iran war, Brent oil under $100, room for Fed cuts, and gridlock that limits policy surprises.
@SuperLuckeee added that $SPY was higher after 10 of the last 10 midterms. @SuperLuckeee signed off: "Expecting a big Santa Claus rally now!" The very next day, stock sentiment sank to its weekly low.
They have leaned short on $MU and $QQQ since both lost that line, eyeing the daily 200 SMA as a downside target. If that level breaks, they expect a retest of the July low, a move they have prepared for.
Insider buying. The largest open-market purchase filed this week was a $35.0 million buy of MDGL by BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP (filed Nov 6). Next came a $31.5 million buy of COUR by Pale Fire Capital SE (filed Nov 5). Third was a $26.9 million buy of SIRI by BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC (filed Nov 3).
Our track record. Our analysis covers Oct 8, 2026 through Nov 3, 2026, and the samples are small. When stock sentiment was in its top quarter of readings (6 cases), SPY was lower two days later in 5 of 6 cases and higher in 1 of 6. The average move was down 0.69%, against a typical two-day move of down 0.04% (p = 0.07; not statistically significant). Treat it as context, not a trade signal.
Crypto
The week's reading. Crypto sentiment averaged 17.5 this week, down 12.2 points from 29.7 the week before, moving from bullish to neutral. Bitcoin closed at $75,748 on Nov 7, down 1.9% for the week, after a 4.8% drop the week before.
Its lowest daily close was $75,747 on Nov 6, and Yahoo Finance had it at $74,740 intraday on Nov 9, 2026. Sentiment ranged from 14.1 on Nov 2 to 26.4 on Nov 4, with the latest weekday reading at 14.7 on Nov 6. Over the weekend the mood swung: the last reading on Nov 7 was 44.1 (bullish), then -1.3 (neutral) on Nov 8.
News vs. traders. The same combined trader figures apply here. Fear rose in both headlines and posts, with greed edging up from a low base.
Loudest bull and bear. On Nov 7, @CryptoKaleo held up Litecoin as the template for coins that return from the dead. In their read, Zcash has completed the first phase of that pattern and is close to finishing the second, which they think sets it up for a far bigger rally than the market expects. They put the next clear resistance about 170% above current levels and sketched ZEC near $5K if Bitcoin also returns to its highs.
@rektcapital took the gloomier view on Nov 5, saying Bitcoin was retesting old support as new resistance for a third straight week after a weekly close below ~$78300. They read the repeated rejections as sell-side pressure building at lower levels, and @rektcapital called ~$76800 "absolutely crucial support right now." Bitcoin's Nov 7 close of $75,748 came in below that line.
Our track record. The same caveats apply: data from Oct 8 through Nov 3, and small samples. When crypto sentiment was in its top quarter of readings (8 cases), BTC-USD was lower two days later in 6 of 8 cases. The average move was down 1.01% vs a typical two-day move of down 0.90% (p = 0.87; not statistically significant).
When sentiment was in its bottom quarter (9 cases), BTC-USD was higher the next day in 7 of 9 cases. The average move was up 0.49% vs a typical one-day move of down 0.42%. That result has p = 0.02, below 0.05 but one of many tests we ran. It is context, not a trade signal.
Bottom line
Traders turned more cautious as stocks and Bitcoin slid, and headlines carried more fear too. Neither market tipped into bearish sentiment, so this looks like a cooling, not a panic. Loud voices on both sides made confident calls, and the week mostly rewarded the bears.
Sources
AED trader sentiment composite: 100+ traders on X, scored hourly; 5 PM ET readings Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. News fear/greed tagging of world, US, markets and geopolitics headline feeds.
SEC EDGAR Form 4: BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP (MDGL), filed 2026-11-06
SEC EDGAR Form 4: Pale Fire Capital SE (COUR), filed 2026-11-05
SEC EDGAR Form 4: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC (SIRI), filed 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) daily closes
AED analysis of sentiment vs. next-day and two-day SPY and Bitcoin moves, data Oct 8, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026
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